Public-Record Analysis | Public Services & Infrastructure
Oncor Projects 20% Larger Grid Investment Plan as Data-Center Requests Mount
Oncor projects a roughly 20% larger 2027–2031 base capital plan. Data-center requests, customer collateral and a pending large-load review leave important cost questions unresolved.
DALLAS — Oncor expects its next five-year grid investment plan to be approximately 20% larger than its existing $47.5 billion program, while a separate group of large-customer projects remains outside its current base plan.
The company’s November 5 announcement describes a preliminary plan for 2027–2031. Oncor expects to finalize it in the first quarter of 2027.
Applying the projected increase to the earlier total implies roughly $57 billion, about $9.5 billion more. Those are calculations by The Texas Public Record from rounded company figures, not a finalized budget. The comparison also moves the planning window forward from 2026–2030.
Oncor operates the transmission and distribution infrastructure that delivers electricity. Its construction budget and the charges customers ultimately pay are separate questions: financing pays for construction; cost recovery determines how eligible costs are collected from customers.
The announcement does not establish a specific household-bill increase.
Connection requests and construction plans
Oncor reported 795 active large commercial and industrial transmission connection requests as of September 30, 2026, including approximately 293 gigawatts associated with data centers. These are requested capacity, not current consumption or guaranteed future demand.
At the end of 2025, the company reported 650 such requests, including approximately 255 gigawatts associated with data centers.
When it announced the 2026–2030 plan in February, Oncor said large commercial and industrial connection projects entered that base plan only after reaching certain development milestones. It also identified Permian Basin infrastructure, other transmission projects and distribution upgrades as major investment drivers.
The November announcement adds a consequential distinction: projects in ERCOT’s “Batch Zero” large-load review remain outside Oncor’s current base capital plan. Their treatment in the forthcoming plan remains to be established.
Customer protections and the next decisions
Oncor reported approximately $6 billion in collateral covering generation and large commercial and industrial connection requests. It says that security reduces cancellation-related exposure for existing customers. About $2 billion relates to Batch Zero projects and is included in the total.
Its February disclosure explained that collateral can be refunded when projects enter service or under certain other conditions.
Determining the protection in a particular cancellation requires the applicable agreement, security terms and costs already incurred. The aggregate collateral figure alone cannot establish whether every potential loss is covered. This report has not established either a protection shortfall or full coverage.
Oncor says an ERCOT audit of customer qualifications and community impacts is expected in December 2026. Batch Zero classifications remain conditional, and the company expects the resulting final transmission plan in fall 2027.
Those milestones, alongside Oncor’s expected first-quarter capital-plan announcement, will help distinguish projects seeking power from the infrastructure the company plans to build. Any calculation of existing customers’ share will require the applicable cost-recovery filings, regulatory decisions and customer allocations.
SOURCES
Interested-party disclosures:
Verified through November 6, 2026. Company figures and expected milestones are attributed disclosures. The new quarterly filing, controlling rate records and project agreements were not inspected for this report.
EDITORIAL NOTICE: This report reflects records and information available at publication. Allegations, charges, and disputed claims are not findings of wrongdoing. Submit documented correction or clarification requests by messaging The Texas Public Record on the platform where this article appears. Material errors will be corrected transparently.
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